摘要
成渝通道是一条各种运输方式发育完善竞争激烈的客运通道，本文的目的是预测通道内各交通方式的客流分担率。Logit模型是预测运输通道上各种交通方式客流分担率的一种比较成熟的方法，本文通过研究成渝通道客运市场的规律，设置经济性、快速、方便性、舒适性、安全性五个属性，建立广义出行费用函数来改进Logit模型。并运用2005年的客流分担率结果对模型进行检验调整。最后运用模型预测了遂渝高速公路开通后，成渝铁路，成渝城际铁路、航空和高速公路的客流分担率。结果表明2008年以后城际铁路将分担2／3的客流，新高速公路承担1／3的客流。
The objective of this paper is to predict the mode share of each transportation model. Logit model which is widely applied in the transportation research was used for the analysis. Economy, speediness, convenience, comfort and safety were selected as 5 targets to establish generalized utility function. All the parameter were adjus- ted by the statistic of model share of 2005. At last model share of the exiting railway line,the intercity railway line, the freeway and airline of 2008 were calculated by the improved Logit model. The results indicate model share of intercity railway line is 2/3 ,and that of the new freeway is1/3.
出处
《西安铁路职业技术学院学报》
2010年第2期13-16,共4页
Journal of Xi’an Railway Vocational & Technical Institute
