摘要
本文设计了一个使用3.2m以上各层月地温距平(T＇_(3.2))资料做全国范围的降水年度预报的定性方法,其基本点是考虑土壤导热系数K_s的年际变化,应用公式计算预报时段的相应变化。这样对同一年度的降水预报,利用其前期不同时段的T＇_(3.2)值填在同一张图上,再分析高温和低温轴线,它们分别与预报年度的多雨少雨轴线相对应。根据1982—1987年的结果,T＇_(3.2)与降水距平符号的同号率,对全国范围来讲为0.71,如果不计东北地区,则两者距平符号的同号率是0.73。
This thesis devises a qualitative method which forecast yearly precipitation in whole country with soil temperature anomalies ( T'3.2) at 3.2m. It's basic point is calculating the yearly variation of the heat conductivity of soil and the values of forecasting period τ by formula[1]τ = π·Zm2/KS. So, for a certain year's precipitation forecasting,we can use T'3.2 at previous different periods, and then put them on the same figure. At last we analyse the axes of maxima and minima of soil temperature anomalies which is corresronding to the axes of precipitation maxima and minima during forecasting year. By the results of 1982-1987 year, the ratio of the same symbol between T'3.2 and precipitation anomalies, for the whole country, is 0.71, if northeast area is not included, it's ratio is 0.73.
出处
《高原气象》
CSCD
北大核心
1989年第3期228-242,共15页
Plateau Meteorology
关键词
地温
降水预报
年度预报
Soil conductive coefficient
Wave period
Axes of high and low temperature
Ratio of the same symbol
