摘要
全球生态环境的日益恶化和能源使用的巨大环境影响使能源消耗的生态占用问题受到各国的广泛关注。本文借助生态足迹分析法(EFA)的理念,计算了中国1980年-2007年的能源生态足迹,并利用非参数的DEA-Malmquist生产率方法将广义技术进步分解为科技进步、纯技术效率和规模效率3个部分,然后采用时间序列法实证分析了这3个部分和能源专有技术进步对中国能源生态足迹的作用。结果表明,技术进步确实能够降低能源生态足迹,但各因素的相对作用和作用周期有一定的差异;比较而言,广义技术进步的作用要大于能源专有技术的作用;规模效率的滞后性最明显;技术效率的相对作用较大,科技进步的贡献相对低些,但随着时间推移,技术效率的作用慢慢减弱,而科技进步的作用却逐渐稳步增强。另外,在人口、国内生产总值、能源结构和产业结构四个考察因素中,能源消费结构的消极作用最大,人口的作用次之,产业结构的积极作用再次之,经济发展的作用要小得多。
Ecological degradation resulting from increasingly large energy consumption has received much attention around the globe.In this paper,the ecological footprint analysis（EFA） was performed to evaluate the energy ecological footprint of China from 1980 to 2007.It was found that it generally increased year by year,showing that the energy ecological footprint in 2007 was roughly 3.12 times of that in 1980;the average per capita in 2007 was 2.33 times of that in 1980.This indicates an increasingly grim situation on the impacts of energy consumption on ecology.The ecological footprint of the national level was even about 50 percent of that in 2007.This finding would be beneficial to developing a better understanding of the relationship between the energy consumption and the national ecological healthy.The general technology advance（the total factor productivity,TFP） was decomposed into two factors,i.e.,the technical efficiency change（EC） and the technological progress（TP）.The EC was further decomposed into the scale effect change（SC） and pure technical efficiency-induced change（PC） with the non-parametric data envelopment analysis（DEA）-Malmquist method.Then the impacts of the TP and EC and TP,SC and PC,and the other four key factors,i.e.,population,GDP,energy consumption structure and industrial structure,and the energy consumption structure were examined.It was concluded that the TEP can essentially reduce ecological footprint,and the impact of each factor varies to certain degree.The impact of the TEP was found to be greater than any factor of the spatial energy technology advance.The EC seems to be the most critical factor in guaranteeing China＇s energy security,but the TP shows a relatively small effect.The response of the TP to energy footprint is gradually getting positive,on the contrary to the EC.In addition,SC shows the greatest lag effect.Of the four factors in the spatial energy technology advance,the energy consumption structure has the most negative impact,followed by population,the industrial structure showing a positive effect,and GDP.It would therefore be conducive to reducing energy ecological footprint through advancing sciences and technologies,improving the technological efficiency,and updating the energy consumption structure.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第7期1280-1288,共9页
Resources Science
基金
国家社科基金:"中国能源利用效率及统计测度研究"(编号:08CTJ006)
国家统计科学研究项目:"国家能源使用安全测度理论与实证研究"(编号:2008LY018)
国家自然科学基金:"西部能源资源开采顺序优化"(编号:90610032)的阶段性成果
关键词
能源生态足迹
科技进步
曼奎斯特指数
Energy ecological footprint
Technology advance
Malmquist index
