摘要
分两步解析钢产量的增长机制,首先在若干假设条件下提出了钢产量增长的基准模式,其主要特点是钢产量与GDP同步增长,分析了基准模式下的钢产量、在役钢量、GDP以及它们的年增长率;然后讨论偏离基准模式的各种可能性,及其对钢产量增速的影响。在此基础上得到了钢产量年增长率的基本计算式。分析了偏离基准模式对单位GDP钢产量的影响。在对钢产量增长机制进行解析的基础上,广泛联系全社会发生的各种现象,提出使我国钢产量增速远远超过GDP增速的16种现象,提出在宏观调控工作中,要区别对待这些现象。从中、日、美三国单位GDP钢产量数据对比可见,我国降低单位GDP钢产量的空间很大。文章为我国钢铁行业的宏观调控提供了新思路。
Mechanism of steel output growth was resolved by two steps： firstly a standard mode was given under some assuming conditions,and its main character is steel output varies with the same speed as GDP.Steel output,steel products in use,GDP and their annual increasing rate were analyzed under standard mode.Some kinds of possibilities deviate from standard mode and their influence on steel output were discussed.Basic calculating formula for the annual increasing rate of steel output was obtained.Effect of deviating from standard mode on steel output per unit GDP was analyzed.Sixteen kinds of phenomena,which caused the annual increasing rate of steel output excessively exceeding GDP were put forward that extensively related to the social phenomena.We should make differences among these phenomena in macro regulation and control.Steel output per unit GDP in China has a large space to decrease based on the data of steel output per unit GDP among China,Japan and USA.A new train of thought of macro regulation and control for steel and iron industry in China was provided.
出处
《中国工程科学》
2010年第6期4-11,17,共9页
Strategic Study of CAE
基金
国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAE03A00)
关键词
钢产量
在役钢量
GDP
年增长率
机制
基准模式
steel output
steel products in use
GDP
annual increasing rate
mechanism
standard mode
