摘要
降雨是地区水资源的主要来源,研究其长期的演变特性,对于水文水资源系统的预报、模拟具有十分重要的意义。运用去趋势波动分析法,对宝鸡市51年月降雨量序列分析,得到了定量描述降雨时间序列长期变化行为的参数——标度指数,并探讨了降雨序列的长程相关性及其内在规律性。结果表明:对应不同研究尺度,月序列波动的标度指数分别为0.268 5和0.809 7,即在大于88个月时间尺度上原序列是正相关的,在小于88个月的时间尺度上降雨序列是反相关的,体现了半干旱区降雨系统演变机理的复杂性。
Rainfall is the main source of water resources in any region,studying the evolvement characteristic of the precipitation is of great importance for forecasting and simulating hydrology system.By using the method of detrended fluctuation analysis,the monthly rainfall series for 51 years in Baoji Municipality is analyzed to obtain a parameter to depict the long-range varying behaviors of the precipitation in quantities,i.e,the scaling index,and the long range correlation and the inner law of the precipitation are discussed in this paper.The results indicate that the scaling indexes of monthly series fluctuation corrosponding to different research scales are 0.268 5 and 0.809 7 respectively,that is,the original series over 88-monthly time scale is the positive correlaion,while the rainfall series under 88-monthly time scales is the conter-correlation,whereby emboding the complexity of the systematic evolvement mechanism of rainfall in the semi-arid areas.
出处
《西安理工大学学报》
CAS
北大核心
2010年第2期148-151,共4页
Journal of Xi'an University of Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(50779052)
陕西省自然科学基础研究计划资助项目(2010JM5001)
陕西省教育厅科研计划资助项目(08JZ55)
关键词
降雨
去趋势波动分析
长程相关性
precipitation
detrended fluctuation analysis
long-range correlation
