摘要
中国是油脂和油料的进口大国,争取国际油脂定价权以维护国家经济利益成为当务之急。运用可以测度变量即期相互作用的SVAR模型分析国际油脂期货价格的传导机制,表明我国油脂期货价格与国际油脂期货价格之间存在协整关系和因果关系,但这种关系并不能说明我国油脂期货市场拥有了国际定价权。SVAR的结果说明芝加哥和温尼伯期货市场分别是世界豆油和菜籽油的定价中心,而中国以及马来西亚的新兴油脂期货市场仅属于外围市场。因此,应加快我国油脂期货市场的发展,积极推进我国油脂商品市场的改革,逐步提高国内期货市场的国际化水平。
China is a big oil and oilseed importer, so it is an urgent issue for China to compete for pricing right on international oil markets in order to safeguard the economic interests of the State. The Paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of international oil futures prices using SVAR model which can measure immediate interaction between variables. Researches show that there are co- integration and causality relationships between Chinese oil futures prices and international oil futures prices, but the relationships do not explain China＇s oil futures market has possessed pricing right on international market. Results of SVAR show that Chicago and Winnipeg futures markets are the pricing centers for soybean oil futures and rapeseed oil futures respectively, and China and Malaysia oil futures markets are both fringe markets. Therefore, we should accelerate the development of Chinese oil futures market, actively promote reforms of Chinese oil product market and gradually increase the international level of domestic futures market.
出处
《武汉大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第4期624-629,共6页
Wuhan University Journal：Philosophy & Social Science
关键词
油脂期货
价格传导
国际定价权
SVAR模型
oil futures
price transmission
pricing right on international market
SVAR
