摘要
以广义翁氏模型为代表的单循环模型是目前运用最为广泛的天然气产量预测模型。但对于存在多个产量循环的油气田而言，单循环模型的预测产量与历史产量拟合程度比较低，预测的最终可采储量误差较大。为此，对现有的单循环模型进行改进，建立多循环预测模型，阐述了模型的求解步骤和对预测效果的评价方法。采用所建立的多循环模型对世界天然气产量进行了预测，并与单循环模型预测结果进行了对比分析。结果表明，世界天然气产量峰值将于2031年左右到来，峰值产量约为4．04×10^12m^3，最终可采储量约为395．21×10^12m^3。结论认为：多循环预测模型比单循环模型更加有效和实用。
The single-cycle model,represented by the Weng's Cycle Model,has been widely used for the prediction of gas production at present.However,production prediction using a single-cycle model has a low degree of fitting with the historical production for a gas field with a multi-production cycle,and the accuracy of ultimate reserves prediction is also low.Therefore,this paper establishes a multi-cycle model by modifying the present single-cycle model,and introduces the solution procedures and evaluation methods for the forecasting results of the model.The modified multi-cycle model is applied to the forecast of the natural gas production of the world,and the results show that the world's natural gas will peak around 2031 with the peak production of 4.04 tcm and ultimate recoverable reserves of 395.21 tcm.Moreover,we compare the prediction results by the single-cycle model and the multi-cycle model,and find that the results of root mean square deviation(Drms)for OECD countries and non-OECD countries with the multi-cycle model are 2.74% and 2.07% respectively,which are significantly less than those with the single-cycle model and show that the multi-cycle model is more effective and practical.
出处
《天然气工业》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第7期114-116,共3页
Natural Gas Industry
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“国际能源价格波动背景下国家能源价格调控策略研究”(编号:70841024)
国家重大专项“大型油气田及煤层气开发”(编号:2009ZX05042-001)
关键词
天然气
产量
预测
多循环
模型
改进
峰值
natural gas,production,prediction,multi-cycle,model,innovation,peak
