摘要
利用河北省境内海河流域51个气象站、68个水文站1956～2000年近50年的气象、径流量数据,分析了气象要素和径流量的变化规律。河北省境内海河流域多年平均地表径流量为67.0×108m3,从20世纪50年代至90年代地表径流量呈逐渐减小的趋势,50年代为105.3×108m3,90年代为54.7×108m3。地表径流量随降水量的减少而减小,随气温的升高而下降,用回归方法建立的径流量与气象要素之间的模型为对数模型。根据未来气候变化情景对河北省海河流域径流量的预测:2030年为70.0～76.8×108m3,2050年为69.8～76.9×108m3。
Based on the data of climate and runoff from 51 weather stations and 68 hydrologic stations of the Haihe River Basin in Hebei Province from 1956 to 2000,the change of essential climatic factors and runoff are analyzed in this paper.The average annual surface runoff of the Haihe River Basin in Hebei Province is 67.0×108 m3,which decreased from 105.3×108 m3 in the 1950s to 54.7×108 m3 in the 1990s.The runoff reduces with the decrease of the precipitation and the rise of the temperature.The models of essential climatic factors and the runoff established by the multiple regression analysis are logarithmic non-linear functions.Finally,based on the prediction of the future climatic change in 2030 and 2050,the surface runoff of the Haihe River Basin in Hebei Province will be 70.0×108～76.8×108 m3 in 2030 and 69.8×108～76.9×108 m3 in 2050,respectively.
出处
《地理研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第8期1502-1509,共8页
Geographical Research
基金
国家自然科学基金(40672163)
河北省自然科学基金(D2004000480)
关键词
海河流域
气候变化
地表径流量
径流量距平
灵敏度分析
Haihe River Basin
climatic change
surface runoff
runoff anomaly
sensitivity analysis
