摘要
利用逐时自动站资料、WRF模式数值产品、卫星云图、雷达产品等资料对2009年5月16日宁夏冰雹、短时强风等强对流天气进行了跟踪预报分析。结果表明:利用水汽通量散度数值产品中大气低层水汽通量的辐合或辐散可作为对流活动产生的重要依据之一。而卫星云图中的强对流云团的识别和新一代天气雷达基本反射率强度、液态水含量、冰雹指数、中尺度气旋产品是短时冰雹天气及短时雷雨大风天气预报的有利工具。并对2004—2008年出现的冰雹天气进行统计分析,建立了宁夏冰雹天气预报预警模型。
Heavy convective weather with hail and gales on 16th May 2009 in Ningxia had been tracked and analyzed by using automatic weather station data,WRF model products,satellite image and weather radar products.The results indicate that convergence or divergence of water vapor flux could be the basis of occurrence of heavy convective weather.Recognition of deep convective clouds on satellite image and weather radar products,including base reflectivity,vertically integrated liquid,Hail index and mesocyclone product,could be very useful for hail prediction.Moreover,hail prediction and alarm model was established by statistical analysis on hail weathers from 2004 to 2008.
出处
《沙漠与绿洲气象》
2010年第3期22-25,共4页
Desert and Oasis Meteorology
基金
宁夏自然科学基金项目:宁夏空中云水资源开发潜力的研究(NZ08157)
