摘要
水资源是一个城市人口发展和经济社会发展最重要的不可或缺的资源,而且是难以在短期内改变的资源,因此常常成为决定一个地区或者城市承载力的最"短板因素"而受到极大重视。北京市作为北方干旱缺水城市,随着人口的增长和社会经济的发展,水资源紧张的问题日益显得突出。本文选择系统动力学方法对首都北京的水资源人口承载力进行了定量的动态的分析。模型中考虑了地表水、地下水、再生水以及南水北调水量等供水因素,同时考虑了工农业发展用水、生态用水和生活用水量的变动及其用水结构等变量以及它们的变化核相互作用对人口承载力的影响,并对上述因素未来的各种变化进行了模拟仿真。结果显示,如果按照目前的供水和用水标准以及用水结构,北京市水资源承载力将会随着时间推移而出现下降;南水北调水量的进入虽然能够缓解水资源承载压力,并较大幅度提高北京市人口承载力,但是随着人口规模扩张和工农业生产的发展,北京市的水资源人口承载力会再次出现下降,因此南水北调不能从根本上解决人口承载压力过大的问题。而提高水的综合利用率和改善用水结构将对北京市人口承载力的提高具有重大意义。
Water resource is a kind of the most important and necessary one for the development of population and economy of any city,and it is very difficult for its amount to be changed in a short time.So it was often seen as a ＂the shortest piece of a wood barrel＂ in research of population carrying capacity.Beijing,as a city in shortage of water resource,is confronted with the serious contradiction between rapid population growth,economic development and water shortage.This paper analyzed the population carrying capacity in future with system dynamics method.Some supplying factors such as surface water,groundwater,regenerated water and the water from south-to-north water diversion and some water using factors such as industrial and agricultural water use,ecological water use and domestic water use,as well as the impacts of those factors on the carrying capacity and their interactions were considered in the model.The various change trends of those factors in the future were simulated.The results showed： first,the carrying capacity of Beijing would decline if current water supply and use standard and structure were unchangeable.Second,the water from south-to-north water diversion could increase the capacity,but it could only resolved the problem temporarily.Third,to change the structure of water use and raise the efficiency of water use simultaneously would have a very important effects for raising the population carrying capacity of Beijing.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第9期42-47,共6页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
北京市自然科学基金项目<北京市人口
资源与环境协调发展的政策模拟>(项目号:9092003)
北京市人口和计划生育委员会的资助
北京市教委科技创新平台项目-首都人口与可持续发展研究平台阶段成果(项目号:pxm2009-014205-074384)
关键词
北京
水资源
人口承载力
Beijing
water resource
population carring capacity
