摘要
常规输电系统可靠性评估将可靠性数据作为确切值进行评估,但可靠性原始数据经常是不确定的,这必然会导致评估不准确。考虑到可靠性数据的不确定性会对评估结果产生影响,文章采用未确知数学方法处理可靠性参数的不确定性,即用未确知有理数表示可靠性参数和指标。通过"合并小可信度点"和"压缩取值区间"两种改进措施,克服了未确知有理数计算量增加过快的缺点。该方法与常规的可靠性评估方法相比,能反映参数不确定性对可靠性指标的综合影响及指标值的可能性分布情况,提供的信息量更大,能反映指标的不确定性。通过算例分析,表明了该方法的合理性和有效性。
Traditional reliability evaluation of transmission systems uses fixed value to evaluate reliability,but the actual reliability date is usually uncertain,which lead to the inaccuracy of evaluation.The paper uses the unascertained rational mathematical theory to tackle the uncertainty of reliability in order to calculate its effect on reliability evaluation,in which input parameters and reliability indices are expressed by unascertained rational numbers.It is improved by some measures and overcomes the disadvantage of rapid increase in computation.A comparison to the conventional methods shows that the approach is capable of reflecting the general effect of input-parameter-uncertainty on reliability indices and the possibility distribution of indices,provides a greater amount of information and reflects the index uncertainty.Analyzing examples show the rationality and effectiveness of the approach.
出处
《陕西电力》
2010年第7期20-24,共5页
Shanxi Electric Power
关键词
输电系统
可靠性
不确定性
未确知有理数
transmission system
reliability
uncertainty
unascertained rational numbers
