摘要
以烤烟种植面积、产生的经济效益为指标,采用双比法、区域回归法、直接经济效益估算3种评价方法,以贵州西部地区2001-2009年4-5月人工增雨作业为例,对当地人工增雨效果进行评价。结果表明,在9a的人工增雨试验期内,贵州西部的平均降雨量增长了314.2%,所增加水量产生的直接经济效益为7.43亿元;双比法评估方案在相同的样本容量和催化效果情况下,评估效果最佳。人工增雨对提高烤烟种植面积、增加经济效益具有正效应,当平均增雨效果>350%时,当地的烤烟种植面积会>7000hm2,而当平均增雨效果<150%时,烤烟种植面积会<5200hm2。
Taking the tobacco productivity and economic benefit as indexes,the effect assessment of artificial precipitation were stimulated with the double-contrast,the region regression and direct economic efficiency estimation.The effect of artificial precipitation in Western Guizhou during April and May from 2001 to 2009 was evaluated.The results showed that the average precipitation increased 314.2% and the economic benefit increased 0.743 billion Yuan RMB.The artificial precipitation had positive effect to the tobacco planting area and economic benefit in western Guizhou.When average rainfall increased 350%,the tobacco planting area could reach 7000ha.When average rainfall increased not be more than 150%,the tobacco planting area could not be more than 5200ha.
出处
《中国农业气象》
CSCD
2010年第3期416-422,共7页
Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology
基金
六盘水市科技局农业科技攻关项目"六盘水烤烟种植精细气候区划及气象关键技术研究"
关键词
贵州西部
人工增雨
双比法
区域回归法
烤烟
效益评估
Western Guizhou
Artificial precipitation
Method of the double-contrast
Method of the region regression
Tobacco
Effect evaluation
