摘要
为对减排目标的经济意义进行比较系统的观察,本文尝试着建立一个含有环境要素的增长核算框架。立足于这个分析性框架,本文对中国经济长期增长的一些重要特征进行了揭示,并对减排冲击和未来增长趋势给出了说明,主要结论如下:(1)改革开放至今,中国潜在经济的增长速度平均为9.5%,其中,大约1.3个百分点是环境的代价;进入新世纪以来,环境消耗拉动经济增长平均为2个百分点。(2)在考虑低碳经济约束、人口转型的条件下,未来10年中国潜在增长速度将逐步降低到8%以下,现有生产模式不足以吸收减排冲击。(3)为了保持经济的持续稳定增长,技术进步和结构转型至关重要。
This paper established a growth accounting frame with environmental factor for the purpose of exploring the economic implication of carbon emission reduction scheme systemically, and discussed some key features of long-term growth of China based on it. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows : ( 1 ) The rate of potential GDP has grown, on average, at the rate of 9.5 % since the Reform and Opening up, and about 1.3 percent gained at the cost of pollution. (2)The restraints of low carbon economy and demographic transition would depress the rate of potential GDP below 8 %, and the shock of carbon emission reduction could not be absorbed by the existing production pattern. (3) Technical progress and industrial transformation would be crucial to the future sustainable growth.
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第8期79-89,154,共12页
Economic Research Journal
基金
国家社科基金重大招标课题"贯彻落实科学发展观与完善宏观调控体系"(批准文号07&ZD004
首席专家张晓晶)
国家社科基金课题"中国经济快速增长时期的动力
源泉与模式研究"(批准文号10BJY004
袁富华主持)的资助
关键词
低碳经济
潜在经济增长
技术进步
Low Carbon Economy
Potential Economic Growth
Technical Progress