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Nonlinear combined forecasting model based on fuzzy adaptive variable weight and its application 被引量:1

Nonlinear combined forecasting model based on fuzzy adaptive variable weight and its application
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摘要 In order to enhance forecasting precision of problems about nonlinear time series in a complex industry system,a new nonlinear fuzzy adaptive variable weight combined forecasting model was established by using conceptions of the relative error,the change tendency of the forecasted object,gray basic weight and adaptive control coefficient on the basis of the method of fuzzy variable weight.Based on Visual Basic 6.0 platform,a fuzzy adaptive variable weight combined forecasting and management system was developed.The application results reveal that the forecasting precisions from the new nonlinear combined forecasting model are higher than those of other single combined forecasting models and the combined forecasting and management system is very powerful tool for the required decision in complex industry system. In order to enhance forecasting precision of problems about nonlinear time series in a complex industry system, a new nonlinear fuzzy adaptive variable weight combined forecasting model was established by using conceptions of the relative error, the change tendency of the forecasted object, gray basic weight and adaptive control coefficient on the basis of the method of fuzzy variable weight. Based on Visual Basic 6.0 platform, a fuzzy adaptive variable weight combined forecasting and management system was developed. The application results reveal that the forecasting precisions from the new nonlinear combined forecasting model are higher than those of other single combined forecasting models and the combined forecasting and management system is very powerful tool for the required decision in complex industry system.
出处 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2010年第4期863-867,共5页 中南大学学报(英文版)
基金 Project(08SK1002) supported by the Major Project of Science and Technology Department of Hunan Province,China
关键词 nonlinear combined forecasting nonlinear time series method of fuzzy adaptive variable weight relative error adaptive control coefficient 非线性时间序列 变权重组合预测 组合预测模型 模糊自适应 应用 复杂工业系统 管理系统 预测精度
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