摘要
敏感负荷电压耐受能力分布规律具有不确定性,现有基于确定的点值估计法在实际样本较少时难以得出准确结果。提出估计敏感负荷电压耐受能力不确定性分布的区间概率评估法,用区间概率分布描述负荷耐受能力的不确定性,得出设备失效可能性区间概率值。利用实验测得的PC机电压耐受能力样本,以IEEE-30节点系统为例进行仿真,证明该方法较点值评估法更好地反映了实际情况,结果可信度和精确性较高,可应用于工程实际。
The complex uncertainty is involved in voltage tolerance capability of sensitive equipment,and it makes difficult for point-valued assessment method to evaluate the impact of voltage sags on equipment,especially in the case of small sample size. Considering that it is hard to determine the distribution of voltage tolerance capability accurately,the confidence interval of probability function is introduced to describe this distribution,so as to derive an interval probability of equipment failure rate. With the help of personal computers,the proposed method is finally verified in IEEE-30 bus test system with high reliability and accuracy,which can be applied to engineering practice.
出处
《电力系统保护与控制》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第17期37-42,共6页
Power System Protection and Control
关键词
电压暂降
电压耐受能力
区间概率分布函数
最大熵原理
失效率
voltage sag
voltage tolerance capability
interval probability distribution function
maximum entropy principle
failure possibility
