摘要
巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国已经成为对FD I最有吸引力的前5个国家中的4个。为了探索FD I对新兴市场发展中东道国进出口贸易所产生的影响,对金砖四国引进FD I和进出口贸易的关系进行了比较研究,运用Johansen协整检验、误差修正模型与G ranger因果关系检验法对1980—2008年期间引进FD I与贸易的关系进行了实证检验,结果表明金砖四国FD I与贸易之间存在明显的互补而非替代关系,巴西、中国和印度的FD I具有显著的进出口贸易创造效应,而俄罗斯、巴西和印度三国的贸易发展能进一步促进FD I流入。这一研究结果从理论上支持金砖四国未来应该坚持更加自由开放的投资和贸易政策。
Brazil, Russia, India and China have become four of the top five of the most attractive countries to FDI. This paper comparatively analyzes the relationship between inward FDI flows and the level of trade in BRICs, in order to explore the impact of FDI on import and export trade in emerging markets and developing host countries. The empirical study is based on Johansen Co-integration test, ECM model and Granger causality test during the period from 1980 to 2008. The results confirm that the relationship between inward FDI and trade is complementary rather than substitutive. Inward FDI exerts a considerable trade creation effect on export and im- port in Brazil, China and India, but not in Russia, and this eftect is the strongest in Brazil. Meanwhile, trade stimulates inward FDI in most of BRICs except China. The results theoretically prove that free FDI and trade policy from BRIC countries should be continued in future.
出处
《北京邮电大学学报（社会科学版）》
2010年第4期61-70,114,共11页
Journal of Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications(Social Sciences Edition)
关键词
金砖四国
外国直接投资
误差修正模型
贸易创造效应
BRIC countries
foreign direct investment
error correction model
trade creation effect
