摘要
利用Ｆ综合检验的理论，讨论了形变异常的定量化及检测准则。利用潮汐观测中的非潮汐形变讨论了大同和丽江地震前形变异常分布的非均匀性，并与地震活动的特征进行了对比。结果表明，震前１．５年左右，能检测出区域性的准同步形变异常，出现的异常空区可能是未来的地震危险区，且形变异常空区在震前应有强化或补偿现象。因而，在地震危险区的判定中首先面临的问题是地震孕育所处阶段的判定；在无法判别地震孕育阶段的情况下，形变异常台站周围和异常强度场中所出现的形变异常空区都是危险的。
In this paper, the detection criterion and quantification of deformation anomaly intensity on the basis of the F detection theory have been discussed. We have applied these definitions to study the heterogeneity of anomalous deformation intensity before the Datong and Lijiang earthquakes by using the observed deformation data, and have also compared the research results with earthquake activity characteristics. It is demonstrated that the quasi synchronous deformation anomalies about 1.5 year before the earthquake in a region can be detected, and then the anomaly intensity should be increased in the former anomaly gap before earthquake occurrence. Therefore the authors consider that the key of earthquake prediction is to identify the stages of earthquake preparation because the precursors may occur in different forms during various preparation stages.
出处
《地震》
CSCD
北大核心
1999年第2期149-154,共6页
Earthquake
基金
地震科学联合基金
国家科技攻关项目
关键词
地震活动性
非均匀分布
地壳变形
地震前兆
Earthquake activity Anomaly intensity, Heterogeneous distribution of anomaly intensity
