摘要
针对我国能源消费的国内和(或)国外需求决定问题,首先将决定我国能源消费的经济总量分解为国内吸收和出口,以Cobb-Douglas生产函数为依据构造了我国能源消费的国内和国外决定函数。然后基于1978～2008年我国能源消费、国内生产总值和出口总额的年度数据,应用E-G两步法构建了单方程误差校正-回归模型。结果表明能源消费分别与出口和国内吸收具有协整关系,这与众多学者所得的结论一致。但考虑三个变量时,根据采用Johansen协整技术建立的EC-VAR模型和Granger因果检验表明,我国能源消费与国内吸收没有显著的协整关系;该结论回答了我国能源消费的决定问题。脉冲响应结果表明,我国的出口和国内吸收的增长表现出受资源约束的特征。该研究方法对解决能源消费与经济总量依存关系研究中普遍存在的问题有一定的参考价值。
Relations between chinese energy consumption,internal absorption and external demand are investigated in this paper.In terms of Cobb-Douglas,the external and internal energy consumption,which compose the energy consumption related national gross output,are deduced respectively to be the functions of external demand and internal absorption.Based on the annual statistics of national aggregate energy consumptions,total export and internal absorptions for the 1978-2008 period,error-correcting of single-equation model are established using E-G cointegration technique.It is indicated by these models that the time series of aggregate energy consumption is cointegrated with that of external trade and internal absorption,respectively,which coincides with the common results proposed by other authors.An EC-VAR model is also well defined using Johansen cointegration technique,which indicating that the external trade is cointegrated with energy consumption and internal absorption,respectively,and the cointegration between energy consumption and internal absorption is not significant,which modifies the common results.Finally,the results from impulse response based on the EC-VAR model indicate that the increase of external trade and internal absorption is confined by resources.
出处
《北京石油化工学院学报》
2010年第3期51-57,共7页
Journal of Beijing Institute of Petrochemical Technology
基金
国家软科学研究计划资助项目
项目号:2008GXQ6D146
关键词
国内吸收
出口贸易
能源消费
协整分析
internal absorption
external demand
energy consumption
cointegration analysis
