摘要
In order to realize the prediction of a chaotic time series of mine water discharge,an approach incorporating phase space reconstruction theory and statistical learning theory was studied.A differential entropy ratio method was used to determine embedding parameters to reconstruct the phase space.We used a multi-layer adaptive best-fitting parameter search algorithm to estimate the LS-SVM optimal parameters which were adopted to construct a LS-SVM prediction model for the mine water chaotic time series.The results show that the simulation performance of a single-step prediction based on this LS-SVM model is markedly superior to that based on a RBF model.The multi-step prediction results based on LS-SVM model can reflect the development of mine water discharge and can be used for short-term forecasting of mine water discharge.
In order to realize the prediction of a chaotic time series of mine water discharge,an approach incorporating phase space reconstruction theory and statistical learning theory was studied.A differential entropy ratio method was used to determine embedding parameters to reconstruct the phase space.We used a multi-layer adaptive best-fitting parameter search algorithm to estimate the LS-SVM optimal parameters which were adopted to construct a LS-SVM prediction model for the mine water chaotic time series.The results show that the simulation performance of a single-step prediction based on this LS-SVM model is markedly superior to that based on a RBF model.The multi-step prediction results based on LS-SVM model can reflect the development of mine water discharge and can be used for short-term forecasting of mine water discharge.
基金
supported by the Science and Research projects for Ph.D. candidates in the faculty of Xuzhou Normal University (No.08XLR12)
Natural Science Foundation of Xuzhou Normal University (No.09XLA10)
