摘要
反弹效应是能源经济学中一个重要的研究课题,它的大小关系到能源政策的实施效果,在国内尚缺乏关于工业部门的实证检验。因此,本文基于新古典经济增长理论,按照索罗余数的思想估算了中国工业部门1979年-2007年的技术进步贡献率,并利用这一估算结果测算了1979年-2007年中国工业部门能源消费的反弹效应。实证研究的结果表明,1979年-2007年中国工业部门的平均能源反弹效应约为46.38%,而能源反弹效应总的变化趋势成递减状态。由技术进步而产生的能源效率提高,虽然没有使中国工业部门实现预期的节能目标,但总的呈现出能源节约的特征。本文研究的政策含义为:在依靠技术进步提高能源效率的同时,要注意能源价格政策、税收政策等的宏观调控,以实现预期的节能目标。
Rebound effect is an important issue in energy economics having received much attention in that the rebound effect of energy consumption directly affects the effectiveness of energy policies. According to a universally accepted economic view, the rebound effect determines the pure efficiency effect. Energy consumption would continue to grow even if energy efficiency is improved under the condition of the efficiency elasticity of energy demand being higher than 1. The rebound effect shows varying definitions in the energy economics literature. Most studies are only related to theoretical issues, showing less regarding analysis and estimation of the size of the potential rebound effects. On the other hand, most of empirical studies are associated merely with the residential sector or fuel consumption for transportation purposes, lacking empirical tests of the industrial sector. By adopting a thermodynamic point of view, this paper presents a framework incorporating three input factors （i.e., capital, labor and energy） of neoclassical product functions based on a brief review of related economic literature. Data of energy, economy and capital of industrial sectors in China during the period 1978-2007, the widely used econometric methods, as well as a ridge regression model were jointly utilized to estimate the contribution of technological progress in the industrial sectors in China. The size of rebound effect based on technological progress during the period 1979-2007 was subsequently calculated. Results show that the average size of rebound effect in the study period was roughly 46.38%, showing a generally decreasing trend with certain fluctuations. This indicates that improving the technological level of energy consumption is gradually becoming a critical tool to effectively utilize and reserve energy. Technological progress plays a role in improving energy efficiency; however, the expected goal of energy saving has not realized in the industrial sectors but displays a promising energy saving trend in the long term. The policy implications are that a sole emphasis on technological progress to improve energy utilization efficiency would not necessarily result in achieving the goal of energy consumption reduction or thoroughly solving problems of energy constraints. As such, it seems to be critical to reinforcing appropriate governmental regulations in the energy field. In the meanwhile, the expansion of economic scale in industrial sectors should be appropriately controlled, following the macro-control policies such as proper energy price policy and tax policy in order to achieve the expected goal of energy saving.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第10期1839-1845,共7页
Resources Science
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目资助(编号:70901016)
国家社科基金项目资助(编号:05BJY013)
辽宁省创新团队项目资助(编号:2007T050)
关键词
反弹效应
索罗余数
技术进步
能源消费
岭回归
Rebound effect
Solow remainder
Technological progress
Energy consumption
Ridge regression
