摘要
伴随经济高速增长的一个突出问题是耕地资源快速减少。借鉴环境库兹涅茨曲线假说,构建耕地非农化的经济效应分析模型,应用中国1982～2007年的数据,进行实证分析发现耕地非农化存在收敛性,并具体计算人均GDP、投资和财政收入等变量的拐点值。计量分析进一步表明耕地非农化存在着显著的经济增长效应,说明耕地非农化的驱动因素强劲,因此保护耕地的形势依然严峻。
The cultivated land is reducing gravely with the development of economy.Drawing lessons from environmental kuznets curve,we set an econometrical model to study the economic effect of cultivated land conversion（CLC）.The data is chosen about cultivated land conversion and the per capita,invest,fiscal revenue during the period of 1982 to 2007.The result shows that convergence of cultivated land conversion is existent.The inflexion value is separately computed.None but fiscal revenue exceeds the turning point.The government would like to occupy cultivated land because of vast economic effect.Thereby,the trend of CLC is still widening.There still exists severe situation.Therefore,much more attention should be paid to safeguard the cultivated land.
出处
《经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第10期88-91,共4页
On Economic Problems
基金
国家社会科学基金重大招标项目"贯彻科学发展观与加快经济发展方式转变"(07&zd009)
江苏省教育厅社科重点项目(08SJB7900003)
中国博士后基金项目(20090461102)
关键词
耕地非农化
经济效应
库兹涅茨曲线
方差分解
cultivated land conversion
economic effect
Kuznets Curve
variance decomposition
