摘要
台风灾害是全球面临的严重自然灾害之一,对处于台风多发区进行危险性评价具有重要意义。由于可拓方法具有从定性和定量两个角度解决矛盾问题的能力,因此在台风灾害危险性评估中运用可拓方法的基本理论,建立台风灾害危险性评价的物元模型。在海南岛历史台风灾害数据库的基础上,构建台风灾害危险性评价的经典物元和节域物元,应用建立的物元模型,选取台风灾害中的综合灾度、风速和降水的危险性作为评价因子,利用可拓模型计算不同单元格内的灾害等级,得到海南岛台风灾害的危险性评估结果。
Typhoon hazard was one of seriously natural disasters in the world,so it was important for us to assess danger of Typhoon Hazard in typhoon-prone areas.As the extension method had the ability to solve contradictory problem from the qualitative and quantitative,the basic theory of extension was applied to assess danger of typhoon hazard,and to establish matter element model.Element model of typhoon hazard assessment was set up by extension method to construct the classical and limited matter elements based on the historical database of typhoon disaster in the of Hainan Island.Disaster loss index,wind and rainfall index were chosen to assess of typhoon hazard in Hainan island based on element model to Calculate Hazard ratingin the gridsand to get the results of typhoon hazard assessment.
出处
《云南地理环境研究》
2010年第4期100-104,共5页
Yunnan Geographic Environment Research
基金
中国气象局新技术推广项目(CMATG2009MS18)
海南省自然科学基金项目(40884
409005)
关键词
可拓方法
台风
海南岛
extenics method
Typhoon
Hainan Island
