摘要
中国目前的总和生育率存在争议,而未来总和生育率的变动趋势对生育政策的制定有重要意义。本文基于矫正过的生育率数据,使用随机预测方法,对1998年以后的生育水平进行了预测。结果发现,到2028年中国的总和生育率有可能降低到1.3的超低生育水平。在介绍当前生育政策争议的基础上,讨论了其它低生育水平国家的经验和对策,并给出了政策建议。
There is dramatic discrepancy in the estimation of current total fertility rate in China,which affects the implementing and adjusting of China's fertility policies.The trend of China's future fertility level is certainly important for enacting fertility policies.Based on adjusted fertility rates,this article forecasts China's fertility rates after 1998.The results show that the total fertility rate will drop to 1.3 in 2028.After discussing the controversy over potential policy adjustment,this article acknowledges the problems faced by western countries with low fertility and countermeasures they had taken,and then accordingly give some suggestions that might be appropriate in China context.
出处
《公共管理学报》
CSSCI
2010年第4期67-75,共9页
Journal of Public Management
基金
国家软科学研究计划项目(2008GXS5B103)
长江学者与创新团队发展计划(IRT0855)
