摘要
本文针对辽河油田荣３７块天然气藏（井）的生产动态预测中，生产数据的离散状态及不均衡的实际，较完整、系统地介绍了所引入的几个使用效果好，拟合精度高的一般灰色系统ＧＭ（１，１）模型及为解决油气田（井）生产过程中因关井、生产间断、或因工程上的与地质上的原因生产出现随机性急剧变化而引入两个改进的ＧＭ（１，１）模型非等间距和阶跃模型。通过几种模型特征的分析对比及在辽河油田荣３７块全气藏及气井的动态拟合预测使用实践表明，这些模型使用方便迅速，拟合效果好、精度高，尤其是引入的两个改进的ＧＭ（１，１）模型在解决气井停产缺少记录，或者因产量波动数据出现急增剧降而得到不等间距的数据系列与突升、突降的数据处理时，得到了令人满意的结果，为油气田（井）的生产动态拟合提供了新的可供选择的灰色预测模型，弥补了过去拟合预测中方法单一，拟合效果不甚理想的缺陷。
In this paper, we introduced systematically and completely several effective and precise common gray system GM(1,1) models in accordance with the divergent and unbalanced production data in dynamic forecasting of production in 37 Rong natural gas wells of Liaohe oil fields (wells). Two improved GM(1,1) models,non equidistance model and step spring model,were also introduced to solve the problems of random and rapid diversification in production owing to closed in production,interrupted production or engineering and geological reasons. By analyzing and comparing the characters of these models and utilizing them in the dynamic forecasting of 37 Rong natural gas wells of Liaohe oil fields, we proved that these models were convenient, rapid, effective and pecise. It seemed that the two improved GM(1,1) models were especially satisfactory in resolving the problem of lack of data due tostoppage of production and dealing with the non equidistanced serial data caused by sudden variation of production or the data which jumped and descended steeply. Therefore, we hereby provided several new gray forecasting models for the dynamic forecasting of production.These models remedied the deficiency caused by sole method application and inefficiency of past forecasting.
出处
《矿物岩石》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
1999年第2期59-64,共6页
Mineralogy and Petrology
关键词
灰色预测系统
不等间距
动态预测
油气田
产量
gray forecasting system non equidistance function of step spring dynamic forecasting stratum pressure accumulated production
