人民币升值下的反J曲线效应研究——基于中美双边贸易的分析被引量：4

Research on Reverse J Curve Effect under RMB Appreciation-An Analysis based on Sino-US Trade

导出

摘要本文基于国际金融学中经典的J曲线理论,从理论上推导"反J曲线效应"的存在,通过2005年8月至2009年12月的月度数据建立进口和出口需求函数,运用分布滞后模型、JJ协整分析和脉冲相应函数分别探讨了人民币升值对中美进出口贸易的影响。结论表明,汇改后人民币升值带来的反J曲线效应尚处于第一阶段,绝对额仍在上升,但增长率已明显放缓。最后结合当前金融危机就人民币升值后的贸易调整提出合理的政策建议。 This article deduces reverse J curve effect from classical J curve theory, and establishes China＇s ex- port and import demand function based on the monthly data during August, 2005 to December, 2009. It then applies distribution lag model, JJ co-integration analysis, and impulse response function to examine the effect of RMB appre- ciation on Sino-US trade. The result indicates that currently, reverse J curve effect caused by RMB appreciation is only at the first stage. The amount of export is still rising while the growth rate has slowed down. Finally, several pol- icy suggestions are proposed regarding China＇s trade adjustment under global financial crisis.

作者黄晓红唐鹏蛟

机构地区东南大学经济管理学院

出处《上海金融》 CSSCI 北大核心 2010年第11期12-20,共9页 Shanghai Finance

关键词反J曲线效应 ML条件协整分析脉冲响应函数 Reverse J curve Effect Marshall-Lerner Condition Co-integration Analysis Impulse Response Function

分类号 F831.6 [经济管理—金融学]

引文网络
相关文献

参考文献28

1Magee S P. Currency contracts, pass through and devaluation [J].Brooking Papers on Economic Activity 1: 303- 25, 1973.
2Dombuseh, R (1976): "Expectation and Exchange Rate Dynamics" [J].Journal of Political Economy, vol 84, no.12.
3Meade, E (1988): "Exchange Rates, Adjustment and the J-curve" [J]. Federal Reserve Bulletin, Oct., pp. P633-644.
4Rosensweig J, Koch P. (1988):"The U.S Dollar and the Delayed J-Curve", Economic Review (FRB of Atlanta), July, pp. 2-15.
5June Helen, Rudolf Rhomberg. Price Competitiveness in Export Trade among Industrial Countries [J]. American Economic Review 63:412 - 418, 1973.
6Miles M A. The effects of devaluation on the trade balance and the balance of Payments: some new results [J]. Journal of Political Economy, 87 (3):600 - 20, 1979.
7Flemingham B S. Where is the Australian Jcurve? [J]. Bulletin of Economic Research, 40(1):43-56, 1988.
8Bahmani-Oskooee (1985): "Devaluation and J-Curve: Some Evidence from LDCs Errata" [J].The Review of Economics and Statistics, Dec, 553- 554.
9Bahmani-Oskooee (1986): "Determinants of International Trade Flows: the Case of Developing Countries" [J].Journal of Development Economics, Sept, pp. 107- 123.
10Bahmani - Oskooee, Pourheydarian M. The Australian J - curve: a reexamination [J] .International Economic Journal, 5:49 - 58, 1991.