摘要
针对GM(1,1)幂模型灰微分方程与白化方程无法匹配的缺陷,以灰微分方程的重构为基础,建立无偏GM(1,1)幂模型。该方法使得差分方程的参数与其在微分方程中对应的参数具有更好的一致性。将无偏GM(1,1)幂模型应用到旅游客源预测中,实例应用结果显示无偏GM(1,1)幂模型预测精度高于GM(1,1)模型。
As to the problem in GM（1,1） power model that its grey differential equation is not matched with its whitening differential equation,based on the reconstitution of grey differential equation,this paper present a unbiased GM（1,1） power model.The unbiased GM（1,1） power model has eliminated some error of the traditional model,but also caused a better uniformity of parameters between the difference equation and differential equation in the grey model.This paper applies the new model to forecasting tourism passengers.The result indicates that unbiased GM（1,1） power model proposed in this paper has a better precision of simulation and forecasting than that of GM（1,1） model.Thus,the model has a certain application value for forecasting tourism passenger.
出处
《统计与信息论坛》
CSSCI
2010年第11期7-10,共4页
Journal of Statistics and Information
基金
河北省人文社会科学研究项目<俄罗斯度假旅游者行为研究>(SZ070208)
关键词
GM(1
1)幂模型
无偏
客源预测
GM（1
1） power model
unbiased
passenger source forecast
