摘要
为了解析通勤者的行为决策机理,通过分析吉林市居民出行调查数据,运用分群持续时间模型(SPD模型)对通勤者下班后非工作活动的参与以及活动开始时间进行分析,检验了通勤者的社会、经济及出行特征等属性对活动驻停及非工作活动开始时间的影响。结果表明:应用SPD模型,能区分出在非晚高峰从单位至家途中的非工作活动,提高预测结果的准确性,也可有效预测不同群体的通勤者非工作活动参与的时间,为交通管理部门制定需求管理措施从而引导通勤者出行提供理论依据。
In order to understand commuters＇ behavior decision-making mechanism through analysis of the surveyed travel data of Jilin city,commuters＇ non-working activity time choice behaviors after work were analyzed by using a split-population duration（SPD） model.The influences of commuters＇ socio-economic attribute and travel characteristics on activity stop and start time of non-working activity were verified.The results show that SPD model can differentiate the activity from work to home but not in the evening peak,which can make the forecasting more truly.Moreover,the model can effectively predict different commuters＇ non-working activity time which provide theoretical reference for transportation programming and management.
出处
《中国公路学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第6期92-95,120,共5页
China Journal of Highway and Transport
基金
"十一五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAJ18B02)
吉林大学研究生创新基金项目(20101021)
关键词
交通工程
活动-出行行为
SPD模型
行为决策
通勤者
非工作活动时间
traffic engineering
activity-travel behavior
SPD model
behavior decision-making
commuter
non-working activity time
