摘要
通过对1990-2008年围场县马铃薯晚疫病的发生面积与气象条件进行相关分析,表明马铃薯晚疫病的发生是生物因子在适宜的气象条件下发生作用的结果。气温、降水、相对湿度、日照时数等气象条件是马铃薯晚疫病发生的决定性因素。在温度适宜的情况下,阴雨连绵或多雾、多露最有利于晚疫病的发生和流行。以受灾率作为马铃薯晚疫病气象等级的划分标准,选取与晚疫病相关的前期气象要素作为预报因子,采用综合聚类法建立了马铃薯晚疫病气象等级的预报模型。回代结果表明,用气象综合聚类法类做马铃薯晚疫病的气象等级预报,可以为控制晚疫病的蔓延,赢得宝贵时间,提高气象决策服务水平。
In this paper,the relation between the area of potato late blight and weather conditions in Weichang County during 1990-2008 was analyzed.It showed that the biological factor played a role under suitable weather conditions in the occurrence of potato late blight.Weather conditions such as temperature,precipitation,relative humidity,sunshine hours,were decisive factors for prevalence of potato late blight.The appropriate temperature,rainy or foggy weather were most conducive to late blight occurrence and prevalence.By using the affected rate as criteria to classify meteorological levels for potato late blight,the preceding meteorological elements correlated with potato late blight as a prediction factor,the meteorological forecasting model was established using integrated clustering method.Tests results showed that the model could improve decision-making meteorological services level and control the spread of potato late blight in time.
出处
《农业网络信息》
2010年第11期28-30,58,共4页
Agriculture Network Information
关键词
气象条件
预报方法
聚类指标
马铃薯晚疫病
weather conditions
forecast method
clustering index
potato late blight
