摘要
通过研究分析气候变化对湖南主要农作物种植结构的影响,提出适应性建议。基于湖南省97个地面气象观测站1961—2008年逐日平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、降水量及月日照时数等气象观测资料,选择最佳小网格推算模型推算出500m×500m的高空间分辨率的网格序列资料;基于双季稻、油菜、棉花、柑桔、油茶、烟草等主要农作物生长条件及相关区划研究成果,确立相应农作物种植适宜性气候区划指标;结合地理信息资料,运用GIS技术,开展主要农作物种植适宜性动态气候区划。结果表明:气候变化对湖南双季稻的影响主要表现为熟性搭配区的变化,对油菜、油茶、柑桔的影响主要是最适宜种植面积显著增大,对棉花、烟草的影响主要为最适宜种植面积减少。针对影响提出应对建议为:充分利用滨湖平原、河谷平原和盆地气候资源,扩大复种指数,提高单位面积产量;充分利用山地气候资源,做大做强湖南油茶产业;充分利用区域气候资源,打造湖南柑桔品牌;充分利用小气候资源,发展湘西、湘南特色烟叶。研究成果可为湖南农业生产以及适应气候变化提供科学参考依据。
According to analysis of the impacts of climate change on the agricultural planting structure of main crops in Hunan Province, this article puts forward some corresponding suggestions. Based on daily meteorological records of mean, minimum and maximum air temperatures, precipitation as well as monthly meteorological records of sunshine hours from more than 97 stations from 1961 to 2008 across Hunan Province, the best small grid interpolating methods are employed to develop the high-resolution grid series data with the grid distance of 500 m. Based on the main crops growth conditions and regionalization research results of double cropping rice, rape, cotton, satsuma mandarin, sweet orange, pummelo, camellia oleifera, tobacco, the indexes of climatic regionalization for main crops suitability were established. Combined with the geographic information data and based on GIS, the work of dynamic climatic regionalization for main crops planting suitability was carried out. The results show that the major impact f climate change on double cropping rice was the change of ripe cycle, on rape and camellia oleifera as well asorange was the significantly increased area of optimum suitable planting, on cotton and tobacco was the decreased area of optimum suitable planting. According to the above mentioned impacts, the suggestions were given as follows： make full use of climate resources of lakeshore plain and valley plain as well as basin to raise multiple crop index, and to increase the yield per unit area; make full use of mountain climate resources to make the camellia oleifera industry bigger and stronger; make full use of regional climate resources to create the orange brand; make full use of microclimatic resource to develop the special tobacco planting in western and southern Hunan province. The research results could be used as a scientific reference for agricultural production and adapting to climate change.
出处
《中国农学通报》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第24期276-286,共11页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
中国气象局2009年业务建设项目<精细化农业气候区划试点>(200902)
中国气象局气候变化专项<洞庭湖地区气候资料序列构建与气候变化事实>(200920)
湖南省气象局重点科研项目<气候预测和气候变化影响评估与应对技术研究>(200801)
关键词
气候变化
湖南
农作物
种植结构
影响
climate change
Hunan Province
crops
planting structure
impacts
