摘要
全球长期减排目标问题引发了各国对今后稀缺的大气温室气体容量资源如何进行公平分配的博弈,其中发展中国家提出了均等的人均历史累积排放权分配理念。该理念由于人口动态变化的因素存在4种可能的操作性定义,运用数学表达式推算出4种潜在的排放权分配方案。对4种方案的简单模拟和结果进行比较进一步揭示了各方案的优劣和特点。
The long-term global goal for emission reductions under negotiation stirs up the dispute between countries on how this increasingly scarce atmospheric resource should be equitably shared in the world.Developing countries advocate for the philosophy of equal or converging per-capita cumulative emission rights over time.Four operational definitions of per-capita cumulative emissions dealing with the changing populations were presented and interpreted by means of mathematical expressions,which thereby derived four possible emission rights allocating options.Simulation results and comparative analysis demonstrate that the Option 1# always deviates from the assumed global emission path,the ＂population freezing＂ Option 4# does not hold water to freeze the actually changing populations,while the Option 2# and 3# both make sense.
出处
《气候变化研究进展》
CSCD
2010年第6期456-460,共5页
Climate Change Research
基金
国家发展和改革委员会宏观经济研究院2009年度基本科研业务费专项课题
关键词
气候变化
全球长期目标
人均历史累积排放权
均等分配
climate change
the long-term global targets
per-capita cumulative emission rights
equitable share over time
