摘要
随着人口继续保持增长、城市化进程进一步加快、经济结构进入快速转型期,各省经济要保持平稳较快的发展,必然会对自然资源产生更大的需求、对生态环境造成更大的压力。因此,对各地区经济系统的资源投入与消耗进行分析,对认清各省经济发展过程中的资源利用现状、调整可持续发展政策方向具有很强的现实意义。本文基于物质流核算框架下的物质投入核算方法,选取1990年-2008年数据,利用面板协整与误差修正模型对中国省级层面资源消耗与经济增长之间的动态关系进行了研究。研究结果表明:资源消耗与经济增长之间存在长期双向因果关系;化石能源消耗与人均GDP之间存在长期双向因果关系;矿物质消耗与人均GDP之间短期无因果关系;生物质消耗对人均GDP存在长期单向因果关系。并提出建议:短期内可采取控制矿物质消耗的政策;长期应采取化石能源的保护政策,大力开发生物质能源。
With continuing growth of population, accelerating urbanization processes, and the rapid transition of the economic structure, maintaining steadily and rapidly economic development at provincial levels in China would result in a greater demand for natural resources. This gives lots of pressures on the environment. Analysis of regional input and consumption is therefore of a great significance to an improved understanding of the status of resources utilization and to appropriately adjust the direction of sustainable development policies in the context of international financial crisis and climate change. The author applied the panel cointegration and error correction models to investigate co-movement and the causal relationships between resources consumption and real per capita GDP for China’s 30 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities during the period 1990-2008. This might be the first attempt to combine the panel cointegration and error correction models with the economy-wide material flow accounting （EW-MFA） framework using generalized least square estimations. Based on the input accounting of EW-MFA, the author derived the direct material input （DMI） indicator characterizing resource consumption, which means that material flows coming into the economic system are required by economic production and consumption activities. Annual data were mainly from a variety of statistical yearbooks at national and regional levels. A few of data were obtained by various estimations. Data of GDP at current prices were transformed into the GDP at constant prices for which the price base year was 2005. Empirical results show that there is long-run bidirectional causality between resource consumption and real per capita GDP, the same as fossil consumption and real per capita GDP. In addition, mineral consumption and real per capita GDP seem to lack short-run causality. There is unidirectional causality transferring from biomass consumption to the real per capita GDP in the long run. It is suggested that in the short term, measures be taken to control mineral consumption without resulting in any impact on regional economic growth. In the long-term, resource protections may significantly affect provincial economic growth, especially the industrial growth. As such, policies should be made to protect fossil energy and actively develop biomass energy. This can greatly promote China’s rural sustainable development and create many opportunities to increase farmers’ income.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第1期25-30,共6页
Resources Science
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目:"国家统计数据质量管理研究"(编号:09&ZD040)
教育部哲学社会科学重大课题攻关项目:"我国资源
环境
人口与经济承载能力研究"(编号:06JZD0020)
教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目:"基于EW-MFA的经济系统物质代谢投入产出模型及应用研究"(编号:10YJCZH164)
北京市自然科学基金项目:"支撑北京低碳经济发展的生态承载能力研究"(编号:8112026)
关键词
物质流核算
资源消耗
经济增长
面板协整
Economy-wide material flow accounting （EW-MFA）
Resource consumption
Economic growth
Panel cointegration
