摘要
通过空间计量经济学经济收敛标准分析方法的扩展,就中国240个地级及以上城市的经济增长收敛性展开讨论。运用Moran'sI探讨中国区域经济空间相关模式与集聚,发现1990-2007年间人均GDP水平显示出强烈的全局正自相关,且局部空间结构相对稳定,各城市要脱离原来的集群有一定困难。文章指出收敛标准分析存在错误方程设定,空间计量分析方法是合适的。空间计量分析结果表明中国城市间存在绝对β收敛,与非空间模型相比收敛速度显著提高且可信,空间因素在区域经济增长与收敛过程中起到重要作用。但敏感性分析显示,绝对收敛的同一稳态以及在空间上并不稳健。从机制看,中国城市间同时存在新古典增长理论和新增长理论所强调的趋同机制。最后,对促进绝对收敛的区域政策进行了讨论,并提出通过模拟经济收敛过程,是判断区域政策有效性的重要工具。
This paper proposes to combine the standard analysis method of economic convergence with spatial econometrics to explore regional convergence based on a total of 240 cities in China.To investigate the kind of spatial autocorrelation and agglomeration,the Moran＇s I statistic is used,finding that the existence of strongly positive global autocorrelation of GDP per capita and what＇s more,the local spatial structure is rather stable.The findings suggest that the non-spatial models applied to analyse ？-convergence suffer from the risk of misspecification and a spatial model is competent.The results based on the spatial models indicate the existence of absolute convergence between cities.Taking into account effects results in a significant faster rate of convergence.The sensitivity test of the absolute convergence with respect to assumption of a common steady state and robustness over space suggest that the finding of absolute convergence is not stable.The mechanism of diminishing return and technology spillover is both important for absolute convergence.Finally,a set of regional policies are discussed.
出处
《地理学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第12期1548-1558,共11页
Acta Geographica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目(40830532)
国家自然科学基金项目(40871066)
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地项目(08JJD820170)~~
关键词
空间自相关
空间计量经济学
Β收敛
收敛机制
中国
spatial autocorrelation
spatial econometrics
β convergence
convergence mechanism
