摘要
依据1999—2007年的时间序列数据,采用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数及方差分解模型,对我国城市化水平与体育用品制造业发展的关系进行动态计量分析。结果发现,城市化进程与体育用品制造业发展之间存在长期的均衡关系,城市化进程对体育用品制造业发展的影响效应强于体育用品制造业发展对城市化进程的反作用;从短期来看,城市化进程是体育用品制造业发展的格兰杰原因,而体育用品制造业的发展则不是城市化进程的格兰杰原因;城市化进程与体育用品制造业发展之间的彼此影响程度存在着较为明显的差异,城市化进程对体育用品制造业发展具有较为积极的影响,体育用品制造业的发展虽对城市化进程也具有一定得正面作用,但效应还不显著。对我国城市化水平与体育用品制造业发展关系的深入认识,有利于各级政府在推动城市化和促进体育用品制造业发展的过程中采取合理对策,旨在实现长期内两者共赢的目标。
This paper based on the time-series data from 1999 to 2007,the use of cointegration tests,Granger causality test,impulse response function and variance decomposition model,the relationship between the level of urbanization sporting goods manufacturing industry and the development of dynamic econometric of China was analyzed.It was found that the process of urbanization and the development of sporting goods manufacturing had the long-term balance relationship,and the effect of the process of urbanization on the sporting goods manufacturing industry is stronger than the reverse effect of the development of sporting goods manufacturing process on urbanization.From the short-term of view,the process of urbanization is the Granger causes of the development sporting goods manufacturing industry,and sporting goods manufacturing industry is not the process of urbanization Granger causes;the process of urbanization and the development of sporting goods manufacturing industry have mutual influence.There are more obvious the differences in the process of urbanization on the development of sporting goods manufacturing industry is more positive impact,although the development of sporting goods manufacturing industry must also have a positive effect on the process of urbanization,but the effect is not significant.The level of urbanization of China＇s sporting goods manufacturing and in-depth understanding of the development of relations is conducive to all levels of government in the promotion of urbanization and to promote sports development in the course of the manufacturing sector to take reasonable measures with a view to achieving a win-win situation between the two long-term goals.
出处
《天津体育学院学报》
CAS
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第1期74-79,共6页
Journal of Tianjin University of Sport
基金
重庆师范大学青年基金项目(项目编号:10XWQ21)
关键词
城市化
体育用品
动态计量分析
urbanization
sporting goods
dynamic quantitative analysis
