摘要
根据类比生态系统物质循环,并利用分室模型理论建立了经济-环境系统物质流模型,重点分析了我国经济系统的生产、消费和废弃物还原物质需求在未来30年的存量发展趋势,数值结果表明我国的经济结构调整虽然取得了相对物质减量化,但废弃物还原方面投入不足,生产物质、消费物质和废弃物排放量仍呈指数型增长,经济发展的资源和环境压力依然很大。
A material flow model,simulated eco-material cycle,for the economy-environment system is set up based on the compartment model theory.The thirty-year changing trends of material stock in the field of production,consumption and waste recycling are discussed.The numerical results indicate that： though some relative material reduction was obtained after executing the policy of industrial restructuring,waste recycling departments were short of enough material input;the stocks of production,consumption and waste emissions never change the type of exponential growth;significant pressure from resource and environment is still there for economic development.
出处
《软科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第1期63-66,共4页
Soft Science
基金
国家社会科学基金资助项目(06BJY045)
关键词
循环经济
物质流分析
分室模型
物质减量化
circular economy
material flow analysis
compartment model
material reduction
