摘要
应用灰色系统理论,建立了异常降水的预报模型GM(1,1).该模型首先选定某个异常值λ作为阈值,在原始数列λ(0)中选取对应于阈值λ的子集X_λ(0),重新构造一个对应异常值的时刻序列。将GM(1,1)模型与随机数据的累加生成相结合,对未来异常降水发生时刻作预测.实例预测结果与实况相吻合.
Described in this paper is a method for abnormal seasonal precipitation prediction using Grey System Theory. with an appropriately chosen threshold, which is related to certain abnormal values, a new data sequenece, corresponding to the abnormal values and being a subset of the original sequence, can be constructed. It is shown that by combining GM(1, 1) with the addition generation of random numbers, can be employed to predicts the time of forthcoming abnormal seasonal precipitation. An example is given to illustrate this method, and the results coincide with the practical cases.
出处
《四川大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
1990年第2期159-164,共6页
Journal of Sichuan University(Natural Science Edition)
关键词
异常降水
预测
灰色系统
降水
grey system, prediction model, weather forecast.
