摘要
本文分别在理论和实证上分析了对外负债与经济增长的关系。在拉姆齐-卡斯-库普曼斯框架下构建的理论模型预测结果显示:对于大国,对外负债率与经济增长之间可能呈现负向或正向的单调关系,也可能呈现倒"U"型的关系;对于小国,对外负债率与经济增长之间只存在负向或正向的单调关系。分别以发达国家和发展中国家为样本实证分析的结果表明:对于发达国家,当对外负债率处于较低水平时,负债率增加会促进经济增长,当对外负债率超过60%时,负债率增加不利于经济增长;对于发展中国家,不管对外负债率处于何种水平,负债率增加都会使经济增长的速度下降。实证分析的结果与理论模型的预测基本吻合。
This Paper analyzes the effect of external debt on the economic growth in theory and empirically. Based on the Cass-Koopmans-Ramsey optimal growth model, theoretical model shows： for large country, the relationship between external debt and economic growth can be positive or negative monotonously or inverse ＂U＂ shape. For small country, there is only monotonous relationship. Empirical analysis verifies that for developed countries, external debt is good for economic growth when the external debt is at the low level; however, the effect will be opposite when the external debt reaches high level. And for developing countries, the relationship between external debt and economic growth is negative monotonously.
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第2期19-30,58,共13页
Economic Research Journal
