摘要
为考察城市建设用地与经济发展和城市化之间的关系,本文依据我国1981-2007年的时序数据,利用动态计量分析中的协整检验、脉冲响应函数及方差分解等方法,对城市建设用地、经济发展与城市化之间的长期均衡和短期动态关系进行了检验和分析。研究发现在研究期内我国城市建设用地、经济发展与城市化之间存在协整关系,即长期均衡关系;误差修正模型表明城市建设用地在短期偏离长期均衡时,会以45%的力度被调整到均衡状态;城市建设用地变动主要受到自身冲击的影响,与其滞后值关联度很大,城市建设用地对经济发展起到了重要作用,且其扩张有利于城市化的进程。城市政府应该严格遵循城市规划和土地利用规划,控制城市增长的边界,规范土地市场秩序,提高土地利用效率,积极转变经济增长的方式,鼓励节地型产业的发展。
Urban construction land expansion is closely related to urbanization and economic growth.To explore the dynamic relationships and interactions between them,some econometric methods such as the co-integration,Grange causality tests,IRF and variance decomposition were used to analyze relevant data of China during the period from 1981 to 2007.Results showed that there were longterm stable equilibrium relations between area of urban construction land,economic development and level of urbanization in China.From the error correction model,urban construction land caused a reverse effect on stable equilibrium relations.When the diviation happened,urban construction land would be adjusted to the long-term equilibrium by 45%.Grange causality test showed that level of urbanization,economic development and both of them had a better descriptive ability for urban construction land expansion.It was also found that changes of urban construction land had a significant correlation with its lag.Research exhibited that urban construction land played an important role in economic development and urban construction land expansion was conducive to the process of urbanization.Therefore,in order to mitigate the contradicitions between cultivated land and urban construction land expansion,the urban governments should comply with the city planning and land-use planning to control urban growth boundary.At the same time,land markets order should be regulated according to the laws and market disciplines,and effective measures should be taken to improve urban land use efficiency.Finally,urban governments should also positively change the way of economic growth and encourage the development of land-saving industry.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第1期7-12,共6页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:70773047)
关键词
动态计量分析
城市建设用地
经济发展
城市化
dynamic econometric analysis
urban construction land
economic development
urbanization
