摘要
利用1985-2005年天水市3个不同气候区气象、冬小麦条锈病病叶率和严重度等资料分析得出:天水条锈病菌主要在海拔1 300m以上区域潜育越夏,1 900m以下区域安全越冬;该地既有自生菌源,又有来自陕西宝鸡至甘肃陇南徽成盆地和西汉水流域流行区域菌源病菌的随风漂移侵入。锈病菌源量与严重度秋季以中南部山区最大,春季则以中部河谷半山-干旱区最大。统计分析建立了冬小麦条锈病预测预报数学模型,其历史拟合率达85%以上,其中重度半大流行发生年份历史拟合率在90%以上,预报准确率较高,服务效果显著,为冬小麦条锈病发生发展的气象预测预报和科学防治提供了依据。
By analyzing meteorological condition, infected leaf rate and degree of winter-wheat stripe rust in three different climatic areas of Tianshui City from 1985 to 2005, it is found that stripe rust fungus of wheat incubates in summer in areas over I 300m above the sea level and overwinters safely below 1 900m above the sea level. That is to say there are not only spontaneous inoculum sources in Tianshui City but also inoculum sources blown from Baoji area of Shaanxi Province, Huicheng basin of Longnan of Gansu Province, and west Hanshui basin. The infection a- mount and degree of stripe rust are greater and harder in south central mountain areas in autumn but in semi-moun- tainous and semi-arid areas of central fiver valley in spring. Mathematical forecast model was built based on statisti- cal analysis in this paper. Simulated successful fitting rate reaches up to 85% and 90% when large-scale stripe rust occurs severely. Accurate forecast achieves desired effects providing the bases for meteorological forecast and scientific prevention and cure of winter-wheat stripe rust.
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第1期142-148,共7页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
甘肃兰州干旱气象科学研究基金项目赞助
2008年度中国气象局基建和事业费项目"中国主要农作物病虫害气象等级预报业务系统建设"
关键词
冬小麦
条锈病
发生发展
气象预测预报
技术
winter wheat
stripe rust
occurrence and development
meteorological forecast
technique
