摘要
财政政策的凯恩斯效应与新古典效应之争是理论界研究的前沿问题之一。本文认为财政政策对居民消费需求的凯恩斯效应与新古典效应并非相互排斥,反而更有可能相互共存,因此,探讨不同财政时期究竟何种效应处于支配地位才是解决问题的关键。本文首先分别运用凯恩斯和新古典两种理论诠释财政政策工具对居民消费需求的作用机制,然后通过建立居民消费需求的固定效应变截距面板数据模型,并以24个OECD发达国家1980-2007年的跨国数据为例,实证检验了政府消费、税收和转移支付对居民消费需求的影响效应。研究发现:一是政府消费、税收和转移支付在扩张或紧缩两个特殊时期存在显著的非线性效应;二是虽然财政政策工具对居民消费需求的总效应通常都表现为凯恩斯效应,但特殊时期转移支付的总效应则为非凯恩斯效应;三是政府消费、税收与转移支付对居民消费需求的效应在扩张与紧缩两个特殊时期之间有显著的非对称性。
The debate of Keynesian and Neoclassical effects of fiscal policy has been in the frontiers of theoretical research. This article points out that Keynesian and Neoclassical effects of fiscal policy on residents' consumption demand are not mutually exclusive, but more likely coexisting with each other. Therefore, the key is to investigate which effect is dominant during different financial periods. First of all, this paper explains the influencing mechanism of fiscal policy on residents' consumption demand with Keynesian and neoclassical theories respectively. Then, it establishes the fixed effect panel data model of residents' consumption demand, and empirically testes the effects of government spending, taxes and transfer payments on residents' consumption demand by cross-country data of 24 OECD developed countries from 1980 to 2007. The results show that, firstly, government consumption, taxes and transfer payments have, to some extent, non-linear effects in the special periods of expansion or contraction. Secondly, though the total effect of fiscal policy tools on residents' consumption demand is usually characterized as the Keynesian effect, but the effect of transfer payments is non-Keynesian in special periods. Finally, the effects of government consumption, taxes and transfer payments on residents' consumption demand are of significant asymmetry in special periods too.
出处
《公共管理学报》
CSSCI
2011年第1期52-60,125,共9页
Journal of Public Management
基金
国家社会科学基金资助项目(10CJY016)
安徽财经大学科研重点项目(ACKYQ0907ZD)
关键词
财政政策工具
居民消费需求
非线性效应
Fiscal Policy Tools
Residents' Consumption Demand
Non-Linear Effects
