摘要
根据新疆气象局地面观测资料,整理出渭干河流域1960-2009年蒸发皿蒸发量资料,运用线性趋势估计、距平与累积距平、滑动t检验、小波分析、灰色预测等方法,对蒸发皿蒸发量的变化趋势、周期特征、突变特征及未来趋势进行了分析。结果表明:①50年来,渭干河流域蒸发皿蒸发量有升有降,总体上呈波动式减少的趋势,其变化倾向率为-19.72 mm/10a,通过了0.05的显著性检验。累积距平曲线的变化趋势显示,年蒸发皿蒸发量以1987年和2004年为转折点,前期偏多,中期偏少,后期偏多。②年蒸发皿蒸发量在1987年发生了由多到少的突变,在2004年发生了由少到多的突变,突变类型比较复杂,是均值突变和转折突变两种突变类型的组合。③蒸发皿蒸发量在50a的时间序列中存在8a、17a和20a的周期。在8a的时间尺度上,年蒸发皿蒸发量序列经历了7个偏多期和6个偏少期;在17a的时间尺度上,经历了2个偏多期和2个偏少期;在20a的时间尺度上,经历了1个偏少期和2个偏多期。④利用建立的灰色预测GM(1,1)模型对渭干河流域蒸发皿蒸发量进行了预测,发现模型的可靠性高,预测结果准确,年蒸发皿蒸发量在未来3年将出现增加的趋势。
Based on the ground observations by the Xinjiang Bureau of Meteorology, the trend, periods and abrupt change of pan evaporation were analyzed in Weigan River Basin with methods of linear analysis, annual anomalies, abrupt t test, wavelet analysis and grey forecasting. The results indicated that as a whole, the annual pan evaporation trend was decreasing in the Weigan River Basin during the given 50 years. The average change was-19.72 mm/10a, which passed the significance test at 0.05 level. The results also showed the annual pan evaporation changes during 1987-2004, which had a high period before 1987, a low period 1987-2003 and a high period after 2004. The annual pan evaporation had presented abrupt changes during 1987-2004. The change type was complex, which included mean value changes and transition changes. There were obvious periods of 8, 17 and 20 years for the annual pan evaporation series during the given 50 years in the Weigan River Basin. At the scale of 8 years, there were 7 high value periods and 6 low value periods. At the scale of 17 years, there were 2 high value periods and 2 low value periods. At the scale of 20 years, there were 2 high value periods and 1 low value periods. The predicted amount of pan evaporation from the established grey dynamic model indicates that the dependability of the established grey dynamic model is very high and the predicted result has nicety. The annual pan evaporation will be increasing in the next three years.
出处
《地理科学进展》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第3期306-312,共7页
Progress in Geography
基金
新疆维吾尔自治区"十一五"重大专项(200733144-1)
