摘要
欧佩克(OPEC)是一个稳定的、政府间石油供应组织,其石油政策的核心是制定符合其自身经济和政治利益的石油政策。影响欧佩克石油政策的因素很多且非常复杂。本文在对欧佩克成立以来石油政策进行全面回顾的基础上,根据国际石油市场新形势和新情况,结合欧佩克石油中长期发展战略等,提出了影响欧佩克石油政策的7个主要因素:世界石油供需形势,世界经济发展状况,市场投机炒作,欧佩克成员国派别、政治体制和外交政策,石油进口国及消费国能源政策,非欧佩克对欧佩克的竞争博弈以及替代能源。这些因素并非是单一的和独立的,其互相联系,互相促进,共同影响和推动欧佩克未来石油政策的走向。未来欧佩克以全球石油供需形势为基础,统筹考虑世界经济发展状况、市场投机炒作等因素,实施一种使油价逐步接近和达到替代能源的价格水平的比较适中的油价政策。欧佩克未来石油政策更趋理性和合理。
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries （OPEC） is a permanent, intergovernmental organization of oil supply. Carrying out the oil price policy is the core of OPEC oil policy, which accords with its economic and political interests. There are a variety of influencing factors on the oil policy of OPEC which are interrelated with each other. Based on comprehensively looking into the oil policy of OPEC, and taking into account new situations and circumstances of the international oil market, together with its medium-term and long-term development strategies, 7 principal influencing factors on the oil policy of OPEC have been put forward in this paper, i.e., the supply-demand situation for crude oil all over the world, the development condition of the world economy, speculative attacks in the oil market, the factions inside OPEC, the political system and diplomatic policies of OPEC members, energy policies of the oil importing countries and the consuming ones, the competition and game between OPEC members and the non-OPEC ones, and alternative energy. These factors are interrelated and reinforced with each other. All of them together determine the oil policy orientation of OPEC in the future. The oil production quotas system will act as an important foundation for OPEC’s making oil policy. The policy position of Saudi Arabia would affect the oil policy orientation of OPEC to a great extent. Reinforcing cooperation, realizing the mutual benefits and win-win result will become the primary trend of OPEC’s oil policy. It is very important for OPEC to strengthen cooperation and dialogue with organizations such as OECD, IEA, EIA, as well as the main oil-consuming countries. OPEC’s oil policy will refer to the development tendency of alternative energy. OPEC should make great efforts to reform the oil pricing mechanism. The games from the external and internal OPEC will also have a great effect on oil policy orientation. On the basis of oil supply-demand situations, the overall consideration of development conditions of the world economy and speculative attacks in the oil market, games and cooperation with non-OPEC countries concerning oil proven reserve, production, market share, refinery capacity, organization and its functions, response to alternative energy, and giving full play to controlling oil prices by the oil production quotas system, OPEC would carry out a moderate oil price policy. This can make the oil prices very close to the alternative energy prices. By the time when OPEC safeguards its own economic and political interests, the goal of the mutual benefit and win-win result should be realized. In addition, the stability of the world oil market should be ensured, and the crude oil should be supplied fully in a safe and effective way. The oil policy of OPEC will generally be more reasonable in the future.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第3期451-459,共9页
Resources Science
基金
中国地质科学院矿产资源所项目:"全球能源战略研究"(编号:ywf060702)
关键词
欧佩克
石油政策
影响因素
生产配额制度
石油政策走向
OPEC； Oil policy； Influence factors； Oil production quotas system； Oil policy orientation
