摘要
应用策勒绿洲区气象站1960—2008年逐月平均气温和降水量资料,采用线性倾向估计、Morlet连续小波、滑动t检验法分析了49 a来该绿洲区的气温、降水趋势变化、周期及突变特征。结果表明:年、四季及各月气温均呈明显的上升变化趋势,20世纪90年代开始的升温在2000—2008年达到最高,年气温线性增暖率达0.34℃/10 a,表现出准31 a、5～8 a的振荡周期,并在1996年发生显著的暖突变;年、四季降水亦呈明显的增加趋势,增加在2000—2008年最明显,年降水量线性增加率为2.1 mm/10 a,准14 a、准8 a左右的周期十分明显,发生两次增加(1986、2001年)和两次减少(1966、1996年)突变。
Using monthly temperature and precipitation data of meteorological station in Cele Oasis during 1960-2008,we analyzed the tendency changes,cycle and abrupt change characteristics of temperature and precipitation by the method of linear tendency estimation,morlet continuous wavelet and moving t test analysis.The results showed that： the annual,seasonal and monthly temperature all presented an increasing trend.The linear warming rate of annual temperature changes is 0.34 ℃/10 a.The temperature showed quasi-31 a and 5～8 a oscillation period.The abrupt change of temperature happened in 1996.The annual and seasonal precipitation also showed an increasing trend,and the wetting trend was most obvious in 2000-2008.The linear increase rate of precipitation was 2.1 mm/10 a.The precipitation showed the cycle of quasi-14 a and 8 a.Two abrupt increase changes occurred in 1986 and 2001,and two abrupt decrease changes occurred in 1966 and 1996.
出处
《沙漠与绿洲气象》
2011年第1期29-33,共5页
Desert and Oasis Meteorology
关键词
策勒绿洲区
气温
降水
周期
突变
气候特征
Cele Oasis
temperature
precipitation
cycle
aburpt change
climatic characteristics
