摘要
文章运用一般均衡分析方法,通过修正传统CGE模型关于完全竞争与固定规模报酬的不合理假设(此即我国能源市场中两个甚为重要却常被忽略的特性),评估国际油价上涨对我国总体经济与产业的影响。研究表明,国际油价波动对我国经济冲击幅度的评估受到生产技术与订价行为设定方式的影响。只考虑非完全竞争而忽略规模经济时,冲击幅度与传统CGE相差不大,均明显低于同时考虑规模经济与非完全竞争市场结构时的冲击幅度。与国外文献在油价上涨初期所做的预测相比,本文结果较为缓和,显示由需求拉动的油价上涨,对我国实际GDP的冲击并不如预期中的严重。
Combining imperfect competition and external economy into traditional CGE model, this paper applied general equilibrium analysis to simulate the effects of international oil price rising toward China. The results show that, economic impact assessment of international oil price rising on China is affected by production technology and price setting behavior in CGE model. Considering imperfect completion but neglecting economy of scale, the impact degree is more or less the same as under traditional CGE hypothesis; both are significantly lower than that under market structure with economy of scale and imperfect completion. Compeered with foreign literatures＇ early forecasts, the results of this paper is quiet moderate, which indicates that the impact of internal oil price rising on China＇s real GDP is not as serious as expected.
出处
《华东经济管理》
CSSCI
2011年第5期55-59,共5页
East China Economic Management
关键词
国际油价
一般均衡
外部经济
不完全竞争
oil price
general equilibrium
external economy
imperfect competition
