摘要
构建都市农业生态安全评价指标体系，选用相关数学方法与计量模型，对上海都市农业生态安全进行定量综合评价。结果表明：（1）1993～1998年，上海市农业资源安全指数处于平稳状态，上海农业环境安全指数波浪式交替增减，农业经济社会发展指数持续小幅下降，农业生态安全综合指数交互升降。（2）1999～2008年，农业资源安全指数经过较小幅度减小后（1999～2004年），以年均10．43％的速度较快增长；农业环境安全指数、农业经济社会发展指数和农业生态安全综合指数分别以年均6．97％、24．65％、6．88％的速度连年攀升。（3）郊区人均耕地面积、单位农作物播种面积化肥使用强度、农业比较优势系数、农村人口人均粮食占有量、酸雨频率5项指标逐渐成为都市农业生态安全的主要障碍因素，2008年障碍度均超过了10．00％；都市农业生态安全的威胁主要来自于农业资源、农业环境安全子系统，农业经济社会发展子系统对都市农业生态安全的障碍作用逐年减小。
Based on related mathematical methods and econometric models, the authors build a set of ecological security evaluation index system of urban agriculture to make a quantitative and comprehensive appraisal of ecological security of urban agriculture in Shanghai. The results are obtained as follows： （1） From 1993 to 1998, the security index of agriculture resources was in a stable state, and the security index of agriculture environment fluctuated, and the agricultural index of social and economic development continued to decline slightly, and the comprehensive index of agricultural ecological security increased or decreased in turn. （2） From 1999 to 2008, the security index of agricultural resources grew at an annual rate of 10. 43% after a small decrease （from 1999 to 2004）, and the security index of agricultural environment, the agricultural index of social and economic development and the comprehensive index of agricultural ecological security increased at an annual rate of 6.97%, 24.65% and 6.88%, respectively. （3） The indexes of cultivated land per capita in suburban district, fertilizer using intensity per sown area of farm crops, ratio of comparative advantage of agriculture, grain per capita in rural areas and fall fre- quency of acid rain became major limiting factors to the ecological security of urban agri- culture, whose obstacle degree was below 10.00% in 2008. Threats were mainly from the subsystem of agricultural resources and environment, and the subsystem of agricultural social and economic development has less negative influence on ecological security of urban agriculture year after year.
出处
《地理研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第4期645-654,共10页
Geographical Research
基金
国家科技支撑计划项目(2008BAJ08B18-04)
湖南省软科学研究计划项目(2009ZK3165)
关键词
生态安全
定量综合评价
都市农业
上海市
ecological security
quantitative and comprehensive evaluation
urbanagricul ture
Shanghai city
