摘要
促进中国低碳经济发展是应对气候变化,实现社会经济可持续发展的有效途径。提出了中国低碳经济模型管理与应用框架结构。基于宏观经济模块、政策分析模块、动态模块和碳排放模块对低碳经济模型进行管理。提出了低碳经济能力评价算法,该算法可以根据不同输入数据实现动态评价功能并进行空间可视化分析。设定4种情景进行情景计算,基准情景、结构优化情景、政策情景和倒逼情景。在4种情景中,可以设定不同的年份,参考GDP增速,假定产业结构和能源结构,通过计算得出指定情景下的低碳指标,以此确定是否达到低碳的结果。针对低碳经济数据进行数理统计,获得不同指标间的关系与变化趋势。另外,将基于低碳经济模型计算获得的数据与空间信息进行关联,可以直观反映不同区域低碳经济发展的状态与变化,为经济发展和保护环境提供技术支持。经系统验证,证明该系统能满足实际需求。
Development of low-carbon economy has received increasing attention with respect to reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and alleviation of global climate change. Promoting the development of China’s low-carbon economy is an effective way to achieve sustainable socio-economic development. Facing challenges of global climate change and pressures of societal and economic development and greenhouse gas emissions, China is actively seeking a low-carbon development path and has proposed principles of energy-saving, emission reduction, and greenhouse gas emissions reduction. Based on the results of ＂low-carbon economy model development and its application in the mitigation of climate change＂ research group, the management and application framework for a low-carbon economy model is presented. The low-carbon economy model is managed based on the macroeconomic module, policy analysis module, dynamic module, and carbon emissions module. A low-carbon economic capacity evaluation algorithm was proposed. This algorithm realizes dynamic evaluation functions and spatial visualization analysis according to different input data. Four scenarios are set for scenario calculations, i.e., base scenario, structural optimization scenario, policy scenario, and forced scenario. In the four scenarios, we can set different years and reference GDP growth, and assume the industrial structure and energy structure. Low-carbon indicators in the specified scenarios can be calculated so as to determine whether the result of the low-carbon is realized. Data for low-carbon economy is analyzed by statistical methods. The relationships between different indicators and their trends can be revealed. In addition, spatial information involved in data obtained from the low-carbon economy model can be derived. States and changes in low-carbon economic development in different areas are directly reflected with the associated data so as to provide technical support for economic development and environmental protection. Based on the above ideas, a low-carbon economy model management and application system, LCEsys V1.0, is implemented. The system is realized by Visual C#.net 2008 as a development tool and ESRI ArcEngine 9.3 as the GIS Development Kit. The database in this system is compatible with SQL Server 2005 and Microsoft Access 2003. The low-carbon economy model management and application system provides a variety of data visualization functions and man-machine interfaces. The spatial analysis functions are expanded for better displaying the analysis results. By application and verification, it has been shown that the system can meet actual demands of low-carbon economy model management and application. Moreover, the system provides technical support for the research of evaluation of low-carbon economic development and scenario analysis.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第4期659-663,共5页
Resources Science
基金
国家环保公益性行业科研专项(编号:200809151
200809150)
关键词
低碳经济模型
模型管理
低碳经济能力评价
情景计算
模型应用
Low-carbon economic model
Model management
Low-carbon economy evaluation capacity
Scenario calculation
Model application
