摘要
分析了国内外概率预报评分的几种主要方法及技巧评分过程，并在预报概率与观测频率（ Ｆ Ｐ Ｏ Ｆ）分布曲线的基础上提出一种适合我国降水概率预报评估业务的可信度指数方法。论文明确指出１９９５年北京０．１ ｍ ｍ 降水概率预报在１２～２４ｈ 和２４～３６ｈ 时段内基本可信，且有一定的预报技巧；而１０．０ ｍ ｍ 降水可信度较低，其２４～３６ｈ 的预报在北京西北部山区布莱尔技巧评分 Ｂｓ ＜ ０。分析表明降水气候概率低的单站技巧评分会出现偏差。
This paper investigates the several verification techniques and their skills cores about probability of precipitation (POP),and presents a new reliability index which will be adapted to Chinese POP operation in accordance with the forecast probability and observed frequencys distribution curve.Verification results show that the POP forecasts in Beijing in 1995 are reliable and skillful for light rain,but lesser reliable for 24~36 h forecasts of moderate rain .However, the analysis suggests that the skill scores would be biased in the place wherein the climatic frequency of precipitation is low.
出处
《南京气象学院学报》
CSCD
1999年第3期367-373,共7页
Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology
关键词
预报概率
预测频率
降水概率
评分
降水预报
forecast probability
observed frequency
verification techniques
climatology frequency
reliability index
FPOF
