摘要
本文在运用相对引力系数模型确定各港口经济腹地综合实力基础上对三大港口进行了格兰杰检验和VAR动态分析,发现上海港和深圳港都是其经济腹地的格兰杰原因,经济腹地不是它们的格兰杰原因,广州港同腹地的关系正好相反。广州港的经济腹地对其的影响是正向积极的,广州港对经济腹地的影响虽是积极的,但是影响力度不大。深圳港对经济腹地的带动力最高。上海港的经济腹地对其的影响有利有弊,上海港对经济腹地保持一种积极的但影响力度居中的带动作用。
The overall strength of economic about hinterland of the port is determined by Relative gravity coefficient model,based on which Granger test and dynamic analysis of VAR are performed on the three ports-Shanghai port,Shenzhen port,and Guangzhou port,and then get the following conclusions：Firstly,Shanghai port and Shenzhen port are Granger cause for their hinterlands,while the hinterlands are not the Granger cause for the ports.The situation of Guangzhou port is the opposite.Secondly,Guangzhou port and its hinterland have a positive impact on each other,but the impact of Guangzhou port on its hinterland is not obvious.Thirdly,Shenzhen port has a biggest positive impact on its hinterland.Fourth,Shanghai port＇s hinterland has a positive impact on it sometimes and a negative impact at the other times,while it has a moderate positive impact on its hinterland.
出处
《产经评论》
2011年第2期53-61,共9页
Industrial Economic Review
关键词
经济腹地
上海港
深圳港
广州港
相关性研究
economic hinterland
Shanghai port
Shenzhen port
Guangzhou port
correlation
