摘要
从理论上分析了目前常用的油气资源量概率模型存在的问题，提出了用体积单元有机碳生烃率法预测油气资源量的概率模型． 把局部含油地质单元划分成若干个体积单元，用蒙特卡罗法求出体积不为０ 的每个体积单元资源量的一个估计值，其和为局部含油地质单元油气资源量的一个估计值，重复模拟计算， 得局部含油地质单元油气资源量的一系列估计值，由此求得局部含油地质单元油气资源量分布曲线；由各局部含油地质单元油气资源量模拟计算评价区的资源量． 该资源量更接近于模型的期望值，资源量估计值的区间显著变小．
This article deals with the probability model of hydrocarbon amount in theory, and proposes the hydrocarbon amount probability model of volume unit organic carbon hydrocarbon\|generating method to predict the hydrocarbon amount quantitatively. It proves that the hydrocarbon amount predicted by this method is closer to the expectation of model, the estimation interval of the hydrocarbon becomes small obviously. The basic procedure of this method is to divide the local petroliferous geological unit into many volume units, and get an estimator of every volume unit whose volume is not zero with Monte Carlo method. The sum is an estimator of hydrocarbon amount of local petroliferous geological unit. The distribution curve of local petroliferous geological unit of hydrocarbon amount can be drawn by a series of estimators obtained from repeated simulated computations. So the simulated computation of every local petroliferous geological unit can calculate the hydrocarbon amount of evaluation area.
出处
《大庆石油学院学报》
CAS
北大核心
1999年第3期5-7,共3页
Journal of Daqing Petroleum Institute
基金
中国石油天然气集团公司95 油气勘探科技工程项目
关键词
蒙特卡罗
油气资源量
模型
油气勘探
Monte Carlo
capacity of oil\|gas resources
model
parameter
