资本管制是防范金融危机的有效手段吗? 被引量：14

Is Capital Control An Effective Way to Prevent Financial Crises?

导出

摘要次贷危机爆发以来，人们对金融自由化的质疑与日俱增，纷纷主张政府采取适度的资本管制以防范金融危机。本文以1970--2008年的118个新兴市场及发展中国家和地区为样本，发现大多数货币暴跌事件发生在资本管制较严的背景下；在控制了与货币危机相关的变量的影响后，资本管制程度的放松会降低货币危机发生的概率；资本管制越严格的地方，经济基本面越脆弱。这些分析有助于我们客观思考资本开放的得与失，选择恰当的资本开放的步骤。 By studying a sample of 118 emerging markets and developing economies during the period 1970--2008, this paper finds that most currency crashes occurred in tight capital control settings, and loosening capital control was linked to reduced likelihood of currency crises. Capital control appears to suffer the adverse selection and moral hazard problem： in general, the tighter the capital control, the weaker the macroeconomic fundamentals.

作者黄玲

机构地区北京大学经济学院

出处《经济学（季刊）》 2011年第1期457-476,共20页 China Economic Quarterly

基金 2010年度国家社会科学基金重点项目《后危机时代稳步推进人民币汇率形成机制改革战略研究》(项目批准号10AZD017)的组成部分

关键词资本市场开放程度资本管制货币危机

分类号 F831 [经济管理—金融学] F224 [经济管理—国民经济]

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