摘要
根据山东省1998—2009年经济发展与能源消费数据,分析了山东省碳排放的演进特征,基于Kaya公式对碳排放的影响因素进行了实证研究。利用SPSS13.0对山东省人均GDP、能源强度、碳强度、三次产业与碳排放量间的动态影响关系进行了实证研究,结论表明,山东省作为全国的经济大省和能耗大省,近十二年碳排放量呈持续增长态势,存在着经济增长与碳排放的线性高度相关关系,产业结构、能源消费结构与碳强度均对碳排放有着重要影响。实证结果表明,在保障经济稳定增长的同时,山东省应建立低碳工业化战略,构建低碳产业体系,优化能源消费结构,加强低碳技术创新,宣传低碳消费观念,促进产业低碳转型。
According to the economic development and energy consumption data of Shandong Province in 1998 -2009, this paper analyzed the evolution characteristics of carbon emissions in Shandong Province, and explored empirically the factors of carbon emissions based on Kaya formula. Dynamic relationship among Per capita GDP, energy intensity, carbon intensity, tertiary industries and carbon emissions were studied by using SPSS13. 0. And this paper found that Shandong Province has emitted more and more carbon in recently twelve years. And there was a high linear correlation between economic growth and carbon emissions. Furthermore, the industrial structure, energy consumption structure and carbon intensity had a significant impact on carbon emissions. The empirical results showed that with the protection of economic growth stability, Shandong Province should establish a low - carbon industrialization strategy, build low - carbon industrial system, optimize energy consumption structure, strengthen low - carbon technology innovation, promote low - carbon consumption concept, and promote industrial low- carbon transition.
出处
《华东经济管理》
CSSCI
2011年第7期11-15,共5页
East China Economic Management
基金
山东省自然科学基金项目"基于集群导向的山东低碳工业化自主创新能力培育机理研究"(ZR2010GQ003)
教育部社科规划项目"我国二氧化碳最优对策模型的研究"(10YJC790381)
关键词
碳排放
经济增长
低碳工业化
低碳转型
carbon emissions
economic growth
low - carbon industrialization
low - carbon transition
